Stock Watch: NFL Combine

March 17, 2009

For football junkies, the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine had all the drama of a daytime soap opera. Fates were sealed, opportunities were gained, and plot twists were plentiful.

Over 300 of the elite college football prospects gathered in Indianapolis to be put under a microscope and dissected by NFL scouts and coaches. This is a time where a strong showing can dramatically improve your draft position, whereas poor results can cost these young men the chance to live out their dreams. It seems those that recognize the pressure and rise above it tend to maximize their opportunity here.

There were both winners and losers at the NFL Scouting Combine, held on Feb 18th - Feb 24th at Lucas Oil Field, home of the NFL’s Indianapolis Colts. Some cemented themselves as first round picks, others put themselves on the radar of many NFL teams that may not have even considered them with eye-opening 40-yard dash times or impressive interviews.

Perhaps the prospect that may have did the most damage to his draft stock was Alabama OT Andre Smith. After choosing not to work out after his interviews and weight-in, Smith changed his flight and headed to Atlanta to begin preparing for his pro-day, all the while failing to alert anyone at the combine as to his whereabouts.

"If I had the chance to do it all over, I wouldn't have handled it the way I did," Smith said Saturday afternoon. "I should have told my group leader that I was leaving, and I didn't.” This incident, coupled with the fact that Smith did not participate in the athletic testing portion of the combine, raised some red flags for the potential top-10 draft pick, who already came under scrutiny when he was suspended for the Sugar Bowl for a violation of team rules. Smith’s situation can serve as an example to any potential athlete. Having a solid support group who offer sound advice and guidance is essential to maximizing potential and taking advantage of opportunities.

How Smith rebounds from this incident will certainly impact how far, if at all, he will fall in April’s NFL Draft. The good news is he has time to show NFL scouts and coaches that he can be relied upon and a strong showing at his team’s pro-day may nullify the negative damage this incident has caused.

Top QB Prospect Matthew Stafford did not throw, choosing to wait till his pro-day workout. He did run the 40-yard dash and posted a respectable 4.88 time. Stafford is widely regarded as the top QB prospect in this year’s draft. His situation is a classic example of minimizing risk regarding draft position. He is already considered a top-five pick, perhaps the top overall choice. From his standpoint, there is nowhere to go but down, and a poor showing would only hurt his stock. Choosing to perform in the comfortable setting of his college’s pro-day lends itself to a better showing. All players in the draft aren’t so lucky.

Michael Crabtree, regarded as the top WR prospect, found out during the medical examination portion of the combine, that he had a stress fracture in his leg that will require surgery. That on top of measuring two inches shorter than his listed height of 6’3” might make a team less willing to invest millions of dollars.

Some of the other highlights of the combine included Maryland WR Darius Heyward-Bay running the 40-yard dash in 4.30 seconds, the fastest time recorded at the combine. RB Ian Johnson of Boise State, who gained recognition when he scored the game-winning two-point conversion in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, followed by a marriage proposal on live television, ran the second-fastest 40-yard dash among running backs, clocking in at 4.46 seconds. Interviews with Johnson explain that his wish is to show NFL teams he can be a versatile back, capable of doing all things well. No doubt Johnson’s stock has taken a positive turn. West Virginia QB Pat White also impressed scouts, while showing willingness to change positions during his transition to the NFL.

Top LB Prospect Aaron Curry may have had the best overall day of anyone who attended the combine, making a case for becoming the number one overall pick. He posted the best times of all the linebackers in four of the six drills, including the 40-yard dash, broad jump, vertical jump and 60-yard shuttle. Curry is widely regarded as the “safest” pick in the draft. When investing millions in NFL players, much like the stock market, many often choose the safe pick to minimize risk.

The combine is a time where prospects can significantly improve their draft position, directly impacting the amount their first contracts will be worth. Conversely, injuries can derail plans and poor showings can hurt a prospect to the point that they may not even be drafted as all.

Prospects must know the tremendous opportunity the NFL combine provides and take full advantage. Solid advice and guidance from their advisors and family greatly impact this turning point in their lives. Perhaps the moral of the story is be careful of the company you keep, just ask Andre Smith.