College Stats vs. Pro Potential

Monday, February 23, 2009

Rick Gosselin of WFAA.com in Dallas / Fort Worth, Texas writes in an article posted on February 22 that as the National Football League this weekend holds its annual scouting combine in Indianapolis, Indiana in order to assess 330 of the best prospective draftees that 2009 has to offer its 32 teams, there are a significant number of players – players such as the University of Oregon’s Nick Reed – who never received an invitation to attend.

Gosselin notes that in the case of the Ducks’ defensive end, “There aren’t 50 players in this draft with better college numbers than Reed.” Yet, like so many others, he continues, “the draft is not about college productivity – it’s about pro potential.”

Reed, Gosselin points out, is Oregon’s all-time sacks leader with 29 ½ for his career and finished fourth in the NCAA last season, having compiled 13 total sacks for the year. Additionally, the talented youngster finished ninth in the nation in tackles for a loss with 20, while concluding his time in Eugene with 52 of his total 148 career tackles going for negative yardage.

Despite these numbers, however, a player with Reed’s size – Oregon listed him at 6’2” and 250 pounds, while the NFL assessed him at 6’1” and 247 pounds in January at the East-West Shrine Game – isn’t expected to make the cut at the defensive end position in the NFL. If anything, professional teams have signaled that Reed possesses physical attributes which more closely meet the requirements of a linebacker. Yet, even as a linebacker, the former Ducks’ star and academic All-American still may prove too small to be of much interest to any NFL coaching staff.

Having been excluded from the official NFL combine, Reed remains confident in his ability to audition on March 12th, when the University of Oregon holds a pro-day on campus for NFL scouts. A second opportunity will provide itself for prospective NFL talent on March 19th.

“I think I’m going to test a lot better than people expect,” Reed tells Gosselin. “In the end, all the [testing] numbers go to the same places. I think I’m going to surprise some people.” He continues: “. . . the combine and all this testing stuff is really meaningless if you can’t transfer it on the field. You prove them wrong by getting on the field and playing well.”

Gosselin notes that Reed isn’t the only player facing similar challenges when it comes to getting noticed by scouts representing professional football teams. He points as well to James Holt, a double-digit sacker for the Kansas Jayhawks that finished third in the NCAA for forced fumbles (six) and eleventh in the nation for tackles for a loss with 19 ½. And too there‘s Nick Moore, a wide receiver for the Toledo Rockets who caught 20 passes for 162 yards in an upset of Michigan last year, and finished his career with 182 receptions for 2,045 yards and 13 touchdowns. NFL recruiting analysts say Moore lacks the speed necessary to be a legitimate receiving threat at the next level.

Gosselin points out something interesting regarding the latter, however. Moore happens to be the younger brother of Lance Moore, also a former wide receiver for the Toledo Rockets (2001-2004). The elder Moore, who came into the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2005 and was subsequently cut by two different teams on three separate occasions before earning a full-time spot with New Orleans, ended 2008 as the Saints’ leading pass-catcher, with 79 receptions going for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Phrases used by NFL scouts to describe Lance Moore?

Says Sports Illustrated in relation to Moore’s involvement in the 2005 NFL Draft: “Undersized, has difficulty getting off jams at the line of scrimmage or making the tough reception battling bigger opponents. Lacks the flat-out speed to beat opponents downfield . . . . greatest value in the NFL could be as a returns specialist. Needs to display the savvy he continually showed in college . . .”